Potential Losers and Gainers of Trump's “Drill Baby Drill”

Should the incoming American President, Donald Trump make good his promise to “drill, baby, drill,” it will leave a long trail of casualties, as well as gainers.

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Trump has expressed his intention to drill more hydrocarbons to halve energy costs, a plan that is already causing ripples among top oil producing countries. While exporters are nervy over loss of sizeable income, importing countries should be excited about saving costs.

As tough as Trump's rhetoric may sound, I see him hitting a brick wall on this account. The truth is that the world's largest economy has limited power over the Organization of Petroleum Producing Countries (OPEC) and its allies. OPEC has long wielded enormous power over global crude output, it decides when to increase or downsize.

In addition, despite being the world's biggest oil producer- the US lacks the structure to singlehandedly trigger mass oil production. To date it does not have a national oil company to execute Trump's plan. Hence, I foresee a huge problem of execution in his hands.

Top Losers

Assuming Trump is able to sail through at the end of the day; although I don't see it happening. Who will be the greatest casualties of “drill, baby drill”?

According to 2022 petroleum export chart, the top ten producers as per volumes supplied are Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Nigeria, Kazakhstan, Brazil, Angola and Mexico. In theory these countries would feel the pinch more if global crude prices drop drastically.