Turn pharma strategy and forecast successful post-Covid

Discover how business strategy and forecasting can be successful during the post-COVID era in pharmaceutical industry.

- SANOBAR SYED

Are we out of the woods yet? According to the OECD's latest Economic Outlook, COVID-19 has been causing enormous damage to people's health, jobs, and well-being. Furthermore, due to this pandemic and the associated global healthcare crisis, supply chains have faced significant disruptions in the pharmaceutical world. The recovery road and the new normal in the pharmaceutical industry are beginning to shine as we enter the new fiscal year 2023-2024.

During a health emergency response, leaders must make numerous critical decisions for the supply chain and prevention strategies (Glasser, Hupert, McCauley, and Hatchett, 2011). The decisions occur in a rapidly changing environment and need to be more informed or biased. Consequently, forecasting becomes essential for helping and guiding the utility and timing of go-to market strategies.

However, using historical forecasts for decision-making is challenging because the landscape has changed, and so the uncertainties that existed in 2019 are now the "new normal." Each forecasting output created has limitations. Furthermore, historical data may not be reliable because it may have been recorded during emergencies. As a result, comparing forecasts at the country or regional level remains challenging, potentially limiting the development and utility of projections.

There are many ways a forecaster approaches the forecast; no cookie-cutter method or answer exists. However, there certainly are some best practices that have been successful in the post-COVID-19 years.

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