COP30: A Widening Trust Deficit

For India, finance remains a problem, but a decision to develop a new just transition mechanism is a victory

- By HARJEET SINGH

AS BELÉM RETURNS TO ITS post-COP30 rhythm, the assessment of the summit’s outcomes reveals a stark divergence between the geopolitical necessities of the Global South and the diplomatic offerings of the Global North. Billed as the “implementation COP”, the negotiations in Brazil were expected to operationalise the ambitious promises of the past decade. Instead, on one hand, what emerged was a dynamic, solution-oriented push from the Global South outside the plenary, which contrasted with a gridlocked negotiation process inside, deeply constrained by vested interests.

For India and other developing economies, the results from Belém signal a troubling continuity: The multilateral system remains adept at setting targets but chronically unable to mobilise the finance required to meet them.

THE FINANCE GAP
The central metric of success, the ‘New Collective Quantified Goal’, failed to meet developing nations’ evidence-based demand for $1.3 trillion in annual public grants. Instead, the ‘Baku to Belém Roadmap’ prioritises private finance and loans, exacerbating debt vulnerabilities rather than providing guaranteed funding.

Even the pledge to triple adaptation finance by 2035 rings hollow without a concrete delivery plan, effectively delaying urgent support. Crucially, India is unlikely to access a meaningful share of these limited funds, which are prioritised for smaller, fragile nations. This leaves India to shoulder the immense cost of its catastrophic climate vulnerability almost entirely from its domestic budget.