BRICS: is South Africa backing the right horse?

Hosting the 2023 BRICS summit has become fraught with dangers for South Africa, writes Danny Bradlow, a professor at the Centre for Advancement of Scholarship at the University of Pretoria. In this article, he explains why the organisation was established, and outlines its successes and failures.

- Danny Bradlow

South Africa is set to host the BRICS summit in August 2023. The event could offer the country an opportunity to exercise leadership in BRICS’s efforts to reform the arrangements for global economic governance and in supporting sustainable and inclusive development in Africa and the Global South. However, the opportunity has morphed into an international challenge because Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, who has been indicted by the International Criminal Court, has indicated that he will attend. South Africa could face the wrath of its BRICS partners if it fulfils its international obligation and arrests him. On the other hand, if it does not arrest him, it could face sanctions from those countries that want to see Putin tried for war crimes.

Hosting the 2023 BRICS summit is therefore fraught with dangers. The international environment is complicated, dynamic and unpredictable. South Africa can avoid embarrassment and capitalise on the opportunities presented by the summit only if it is able to skilfully manoeuvre in these choppy waters.

Trying to understand South Africa’s dilemma raises a number of questions: who is in BRICS, and what has the grouping achieved?

WHO IS IN BRICS?

In 2001, the global investment bank Goldman Sachs stated that it expected Brazil, Russia, India and China to become leading actors in the global economy. It collectively named the four countries “BRIC”.

These countries decided that Goldman Sachs had a point and they could enhance their global influence if they co-operated. They first met at a ministerial level in 2006 and at a leaders’ summit in 2009. In 2010 they invited South Africa to join the group, which then became known as “BRICS”.