THE CREDIBILITY TEST- Subsidies, Pricing, and Investment Choices at COP 30

When world leaders gather in Belém, Brazil, for COP 30 in November 2025, the stakes will be unusually high. After nearly three decades of climate conferences, the world is not short of declarations, roadmaps, and carefully crafted communiqués. What it lacks is credibility. Emissions continue to rise, fossil fuel production plans remain incompatible with net-zero pledges, and finance commitments made more than a decade ago are still unmet. Against this backdrop, COP 30 will be judged not on the poetry of new promises, but on the prose of concrete delivery.

- Dr. Shahi Md. Tanvir Alam

The contradictions in global climate governance are by now painfully familiar. Governments pledge climate neutrality by 2050 or 2060, yet continue to approve new coal mines and oil fields. They speak of just transitions, but fail to provide communities with viable alternatives when carbon-intensive industries decline. They invest in renewable capacity, while still allocating hundreds of billions of dollars to subsidize fossil fuel consumption. These are not marginal inconsistencies; they are systemic patterns that erode the credibility of the entire system.

The credibility gap is not just a diplomatic problem—it is also a political one. Citizens and businesses who hear lofty rhetoric but experience contradictory policies grow cynical about the seriousness of climate leadership. Investors hesitate when they see governments subsidizing fossil energy at the same time as they claim to be phasing it out. The perception of incoherence weakens confidence and slows down the mobilization of private capital, which is essential for the transition. In short, when ambition is not matched with consistency, the result is paralysis.

This is why COP 30 is already being framed as a “credibility summit.” Its host, Brazil, sits at the heart of the global climate story: a country rich in renewable resources, a leader in biofuels and hydropower, but also custodian of the Amazon rainforest, one of the world's greatest carbon sinks and ecosystems. The symbolism is powerful. Belém is not just another conference venue—it is a city at the edge of the Amazon, where the gap between words and deeds will be tested. For Brazil, and for the world, the question is whether COP 30 will mark a turning point in restoring trust in climate governance!!!!