Rich Countries Are Breaking Their 1.5°C Obligation: CAN Study

The latest national climate plans (NDCs 3.0) of developed countries expose a stark truth: those most responsible for the climate crisis are still refusing to lead its solution. A new analysis by Climate Action Network (CAN) International finds that every developed economy fails all three tests of a fair and 1.5°C-aligned pathway - ending fossil fuel production, delivering public climate finance, and ensuring a just and equitable transition.

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Reviewing developed countries’ NDCs against three tests, the review found that:

• Instead of phasing out fossil fuels, most continue to subsidies or expand them;

• Instead of honoring financial commitments, they defer and dilute them.

• References to “Just Transition” appear largely symbolic, stripped of the measures needed to protect workers, Indigenous Peoples, and communities on the frontline of change.

Among developed countries, the EU failed to submit its NDC on time, while the US submitted its NDC before withdrawing from the Paris Agreement. The EU and the US together account for over 40% of historical CO2 emissions. Nine other G20 countries did not submit their NDCs by the end of September: Argentina, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, and Turkey. Together with the EU, they account for half of the current global emissions.

Given the glaring and alarming ambition gaps across developed and G20 countries, the report calls on leaders to agree to fix NDCs that are not in line with countries’ fair shares of responsibilities. Parties must commit to this at the COP30 Leaders’ Summit.

Key findings from CAN's brief

Climate finance remains under-delivered: Just two developed countries (Canada and the UK) specify climate finance volumes beyond 2025, but not beyond 2027, and none outline how they will meet their fair share obligations. No country commits to increasing international adaptation finance; in fact, only Japan and the UK mention adaptation finance at all. None of the NDCs reference contributing to the UNFCCC Fund for responding to Loss and Damage. No fossil fuel phaseout: Despite the clear mandate from the UAE COP28 decision, every