El Nino, Inflation and Markets

Inflation has been the talk of the town in 2022 and in 2023 it threatens to be the most dominant factor affecting the global equity market moods. With the widely expected El Nino to disrupt the monsoon season in India this year, Yogesh Supekar discusses the probable impact it may have on inflation and hence on the markets

- Yogesh Supekar

With BSE Sensex down by 2 per cent on YTD basis, one would say it is not that bad a start to the year given the headwinds equity markets are facing right now. The Indian markets are seen underperforming the US markets on YTD basis by a small margin. Could 2023 be a different year where the Indian equity markets gain their mojo back and start outperforming its global peers? If we look at the economic growth potential, there is no doubt about the macro triggers that gives India a distinct advantage. However, it is never a smooth ride in one direction be it the stock market or economic growth.

On the macro front, the latest concern facing the markets is about the poor monsoon as predicted by several scientists. There is high probability of El Nino impacting the monsoon season this year. This usually means that there is little to no chance of above average monsoon and that there is a probability of a drought-like situation. With 70 per cent of the rainfall experienced during the monsoon season in India and India being a country with its huge population dependent on the agriculture industry, the advent of El Nino this time around when the inflation is already bothering the market condition is considered an important factor that could affect the market moods.

El Nino and La Nina