Energy mix reality a vision without infrastructure

The announcement of an audacious plan by Electricity and Energy Minister Dr Kgosientsho Ramokgopa to invest R2.23 trillion to build 105,000MW of new generation capacity between now and 2039 is commendable, however the envisaged contribution of gas of 11% to the country's envisioned energy mix by 2039 seems unrealistic and unfeasible.

- Nokwanele Qonde | Founder and Managing Director | WASAA Group | [e-mail] |

While the quest to reduce reliance on polluting fossil fuels like coal, diesel and illuminating kerosene is laudable, the substantial contribution of gas to the energy mix during the stipulated timeframe is impractical.

IRP assumptions vs reality

The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) that was approved by Cabinet earlier this month which provides a blueprint for South Africa's future energy journey assumes that the extensive and prohibitively expensive infrastructure required to operationalise the deployment of gas, whether in its natural form (natural gas) or Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), is already in the offing.

The IRP makes no mention of the envisaged role that Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) can play in the energy mix anywhere in their policy documents, whether under “fossil fuels” or “gas”. This is problematic because it overlooks the significant contribution that LPG can make, and is already making, as an alternative energy source that is environmentally friendly, cost-efficient and reliable.

The omission of LPG in the IRP disregards the fact that this energy source is increasingly being used for large-scale power generation in other parts of the world, especially in remote areas and developing regions that cannot be connected to the natural gas network.

We can draw important lessons from our BRICS partner, India, where government's flagship Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY) programme, which provides deposit-free LPG connections to low-income households, had already expanded India's LPG residential penetration to 99.8% by 2021, the latest available data show, up from 62% in 2016. PMUY beneficiaries stood at 103mn as of July, up from 89mn in 2022, according to figures from Argus Consulting.

The gas cliff & infrastructure gap