Why India needs to work on the Young & the Aged?

THE TRAJECTORY of India’s demographic landscape is rapidly changing, with profound implications for our society and economy. The recent study by Lancet on global fertility rates has sounded the alarm, highlighting the concerning decline in India’s total fertility rate (TFR) over the past century.

- Dakshita Das & Srinath Sridharan

From 6.18 children per woman in 1950 to a projected 1.29 children per woman by 2050, the numbers paint a picture of a nation on the cusp of a major demographic transition. Notably, India has already fallen below the replacement level of fertility required for a population to sustain itself, with its TFR reaching 1.91 children per woman in 2021 – below the necessary replacement fertility level of 2.1.

The rise of female literacy and women’s participation in the workforce coupled with changes in the inter-generational wealth has led to the slowing down of the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) particularly in Urban areas with the average age of first pregnancy shifting from the mid-20s to the mid to late 30s. As a case in point, the increasing demand for In Vitro Fertilisation (IVF) treatments indicates the growing prevalence of infertility issues. Projections indicate that the IVF market could surge to Rs 30,000 crore by 2030, a significant rise from Rs 6,400 crore in 2020. The varied Total Fertility Rate (TFR) across Indian states poses a twist to this challenge for the country’s planners. There are now only five states that have a TFR above the replacement level of fertility of 2.1 children per woman: Bihar (2.98), Meghalaya (2.91), Uttar Pradesh (2.35), Jharkhand (2.26), and Manipur (2.17). Evidence suggests that certain regions in South and West India are ageing at a faster rate compared to those in the North.

Demographic Shift 

Policymakers must grasp the complexity of this demographic shift and prepare accordingly.