The Population Bomb

THE WORLD’S POPULATION, currently 8.2 billion, is projected to surge to 10.2 billion in 2080, largely on the back of an increase in South Asia and Africa.

- MINHAZ MERCHANT

But the tide will then turn. Twenty years later, in 2100, global population will begin to stabilise at 10.3 billion before beginning a long decline.

According to the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) which released these figures recently as part of its biennial World Population Report (WPP), India’s population figures in 2100 (1.50 billion) will be more than double China’s population (633 million). China’s rapidly ageing and shrinking population will by 2054 have fallen to 1.20 billion while India’s population in that year – 30 years from today – will have risen to 1.69 billion.

What are the consequences of these numbers? First, China’s steep fall in population will be accompanied by a fall in its productive workforce. These are grim tidings for China. The effects of an ageing workforce on the Chinese economy are already being felt as annual GDP growth slips to four per cent.

Second, for India, the outcome is positive provided the burgeoning population over the next 30 years is upskilled. India needs not only more jobs but more better-paid jobs. For that to occur, the millions pouring into the employment marketplace every year need better skills to be employable.

The government’s Union Budget for 2024-25 seeks to tackle this problem with several incentive-laden employment schemes. But upskilling needs to have a foundation from school level. If primary schools disgorge 16-year-olds without basic skills in reading and arithmetic, no amount of upskilling at a later stage will have a significant effect on their future employability.