Matt Prior

The inadvertent early release of last month’s Autumn Budget details by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) - which compelled its boss to resign - was apparently not the only error the UK's fiscal watchdog made at the time.

- Matt Prior

When the OBR predicted that the upcoming pay-per-mile tax on EVs would reduce demand for them by 440,000 between now and 2031, it initially said the existing Electric Car Grant, plus raising the threshold of the Expensive Car Supplement (of £2370, spread over five years) from £40,000 to £50,000 for EVs, would offset that number by only 130,000. But within a few hours, it amended that to 320,000.

Quite the difference. Can you really see either measure persuading a third of a million people to buy a type of car that they otherwise wouldn't? I’m not sure I can. What I can see arising from the ‘luxury car tax’ threshold increase is manufacturers putting up the list prices of some EVs they’ve been keeping under the bar.

Even if the countermeasures are as successful as the OBR (eventually) predicted in attracting buyers for EVs, the industry is still looking at reduced demand for them, over a time when the proportion of new EV registrations legally has to rise from 28% this year to 80% in 2030.