Russia will exploit ‘red line' rhetoric on chemical attacks

The strategic experts who understand such matters say the best way to predict what weapons the Russians are about to use is to see what they are accusing their enemies of doing.

- SEAN O'GRADY

This is the Russian “playbook” that is being referred to in the west, and the source of their fear that the Russians are about to unleash chemical or similar banned unconventional weapons on troops or civilians in Ukraine.

It is certainly true that the Russians have been claiming openly that the Ukrainians or the Americans have been developing and/or storing chemical or biological weapons such as nerve agents. That claim – dismissed by the western and Ukrainian authorities – would service as both justification for the use of such weapons in retaliation and supposed defence (a spurious justification in any case); and to explain the presence of such materials in an area.

Observers also point to the use of chemical weapons over recent times blamed on Russia, or those connected to it. Novichok, for example, has been deployed against the Skripals on British soil and against the Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, among others. The Kremlin has always issued denials of any involvement. As a weapon of war it is believed to have been used by the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria – who the Russians were allied with. Numerous attacks were assessed to have been carried out between 2012 and 2019, with minimal or no western response beyond sanctions and the occasional airstrike on Syrian government forces (and carefully planned to avoid Russian casualties).