War games

Amid bleak western intelligence briefi ngs, fading diplomatic hopes and an exodus of foreign nationals from Kyiv, one key question has remained unanswered up to now: exactly how far is Vladimir Putin ready to go to achieve his goals?

- Andrew Roth

Almost one year ago, Russia began moving forces from Siberia and other regions to the border with Ukraine. With more than half of its land forces now poised for an attack, whether or not there will be a war with Ukraine hinge d this week on the decision of Vladimir Putin, whose options range from a large-scale assault to a decision to hold his troops back or ultimately send them home.

At stake is a potentially devastating conflict, sanctions and economic hardship, and a verdict on the legacy of Putin, who has broadcast his decision to engage in brinksmanship with the west, saying that the tensions have a “definite effect” and should be maintained “as long as possible”.

Putin has been clear about what he wants: to reverse Nato expansion in Europe and a pledge that Ukraine never join the alliance, but the main question remains how far he is willing to go to achieve that goal. And if he does de-escalate, does he have anything concrete to show for the last year?

In a bit of play-acting on Monday, Putin invited foreign minister Sergei Lavrov and defence minister Sergei Shoigu to the Kremlin for carefully scripted discussions on how it was going. “Sergei Viktorovich, what do you think, in your opinion is there a chance to reach an agreement with our partners on the key questions causing our concerns?” Putin asked in a televised discussion that set the stage for the Kremlin’s next steps.