Moscow Mirage - Putin And Prigozhin Averted Bloodshed-but For How Long?

Though they have avoided open bloodshed, it is hard to imagine Vladimir Putin and Yevgeny Prigozhin will ever be reconciled.

- Andrew Roth

The Russian leader has a political motive to deal harshly with his maverick warlord or risk appearing weak, a cardinal sin in Kremlin politics. And the Russian leader has never been known as one to forgive a betrayal.

The extraordinary events of last weekend - Prigozhin's armed mutiny, Putin's call for "brutal" reprisals, an 11th-hour peace deal - might appear to have resolved themselves. The leader of the Wagner mercenary group halted his mutiny and march on the Russian capital, apparently in exchange for an amnesty and exile in Belarus. On Tuesday, Russian media reported that the FSB had closed its investigation into the events, and that Wagner would hand over its equipment to the security services.

And yet, few believe this is the end of the affair. At some point, Prigozhin will surely have to pick up the tab for his foray into revolutionary politics. And Putin must make good on the threats that he issued on national television last Saturday or make an embarrassing about-face during the most dangerous days of his 23 years as Russia's supreme leader.

Prigozhin's uprising has seriously damaged the prestige of Russia's army, which inexplicably failed to stop the insurrection, and undermined the sense that Russia can remain stable even as it unleashes daily violence on Ukraine.