Retail Inflation For Oct In Line With Forecasts At 4.87%

India's benchmark inflation rate, as measured by Consumer Price Index (CPI), stood at 4.87% in the month of October, the lowest this number has been since June.

- Roshan Kishore

The short-term spike and subsequent moderation in this number it jumped to 7.4% in July and has fallen every month since - is essentially the reflection of fall in vegetable price inflation.

While a moderation in the headline inflation number, and more importantly, core inflation number the latter measures the non-food, non-fuel component of CPI - will bring a lot of comfort to both the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the government, prices of some essential commodities continue to rise at an uncomfortable pace. This, economists believe, will continue to force the government into aggressive supply-side measures to control inflation, potentially generating headwinds for rural demand.

The October CPI print makes it the third consecutive month of decline in the headline inflation number after a spike in vegetable inflation pushed it to 7.4% in July from a June print of 4.87%. A disaggregated analysis of the inflation numbers shows that the story of spike and subsequent moderation is the story of a rise and fall in food, especially vegetable inflation numbers.