The Long Shadow Of Covid

The Centre has ruled out a national lockdown to contain the second wave of Covid-19 cases, but businesses are already seeing red in many states that have imposed severe restrictions

- Shwweta Punj & M.G. Arun

Covid-19 has been compared to the Spanish Flu, which killed an estimated 50 million people between 1918 and 1920. A grim feature of the Flu was the devastating multiple waves of infections, similar to what is being seen with the coronavirus. In February this year, even as a massive second wave of Covid-19 cases arrived in Europe, India was in self-congratulatory mode, believing the virus had been controlled and that an economic recovery was underway following the recession in the first half of 2020-21. By mid-March, that sunny optimism was proved false, as cases in India began soaring once more. On April 20, India recorded 259,000 new cases, with 1,761 fatalities in just 24 hours.

With several state governments now reimposing restrictions on public movement (though Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on April 20, ruled out another national lockdown), many ask what the consequences will be for India’s fragile economic recovery. There is no question that health is paramount. Hospital workers are fighting to save lives, still hobbled by weak infrastructure. At the same time, the now-understood cost of lockdowns makes implementing them a stark choice.