What Is Driving The Commodities Cycle?

The world is adjusting in the way it consumes the planet. Even with new technologies being rolled out, the mineral supercycle seems resilient.

- David McKay

Here’s some good news. The R140bn budget surplus recently announced by the SA Revenue Service – driven by profits from mineral exports – is a sector-specific elevated contribution that is likely to continue for years to come. By the time you’re reading this, Anglo American will have reported its interim financial results. Yes, you may burr: they were stellar.

As for the inevitable bad news? Well, apart from natural market corrections that are bound to occur, there isn’t much doom-mongering to be done about mining. Rather, the challenge for investors is whether they can make the best of the industry’s prosperity. The fact is: it’s summertime for mining, and that scent on the air is the blossom of fortune pumped out by the millions of electric vehicles (EVs) everyone will buy.

Every EV needs a battery, and every battery needs a host of different metals, depending on its science. According to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) Global EV Outlook 2021 report, worldwide registrations of EVs grew 41% in 2020, when total car sales dropped 16%. Sales of EVs in Europe surpassed China for the first time. The main reasons for the popularity of EVs are supportive policies, driven by carbon emissions concerns; additional incentives; and a wider range of brand choice with falling battery prices.

The IEA predicts there will be 145m EVs (in all forms except two-wheelers) by 2030, equivalent to 7% of the total road fleet. In a scenario where governments step up incentives, the global EV fleet could be 230m by 2030, which could cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from vehicles by two-thirds.