Where The Mind Is Without Fear…

TKKanchana, Director-General, Organisation of Pharmaceutical Producers of India (OPPI) talks about the trends which are most likely to drive the industry’s fortunes and company strategies over 2017

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A review of the pharma-ceutical industry land-scape as we approach the end of 2016 highlights a few key developments. It also sets the stage for the issues that may well dominate the industry’s attention in 2017, impacting business trends, product strategies and regulatory actions. This could well be true for any year, but 2016 is special.

About 25 major drugs will be going off patent this year. According to estimates by Evaluate Pharma – a UK-based market intelligence and research firm that covers the pharma industry – about $120 billion in sales was lost to patent expirations between 2009 and 2014. The firm forecasts that $215 billion in sales will be at risk from patent expirations from 2015 to 2020.

A number of factors are coming together to impact the fortunes of research-based drug manufacturers and not all of them are benign. A quick review of some other numbers will underscore the big challenges that the industry faces. For example, 95 per cent of new medicines fail during development, and just two out of 10 recoup research and development (R&D) costs.

At the same time, new diseases and conditions call for greater innovation and drug discovery. Take biotechnology, that has given pharma firms exciting new pathways for new drug discovery; it sets the stage for targeted and specialised therapies that target rare diseases, but cost too much.

So what trend are most likely to drive the industry’s fortunes and company strategies over 2017 and perhaps until 2020? Four principal ones come to mind: healthcare access and affordability, empowered patients, specialty drugs and personalised medicine, bio-similar and generics growth, and going digital.