2021: THE LOST YEAR?

As analysts peer into the near future for signs of recovery, the messages coming back are murky

- ANNE-FRANCES HUTCHINSON

If there were a Magic 8-Ball Pandemic Edition, the same two responses would shake out from the inky blue: “Ask again later,” and “Your guess is as good as mine.” As experts from every corner of the globe offer prognostications about what the state of business and industry may look like in 2021 and beyond, every ounce of intelligence is underwritten by a mutating virus that has zero regard for their pronouncements.

Analysts are managing that cognitive dissonance as well as can be expected.

Buoyed by the rapid development of effective vaccines, hope is the driver behind a December 2020 survey by the National Association for Business Economics. Forty-eight economic forecasters, including those from Point Loma Nazarene University and Goldman Sachs, make up the panel.

Survey chair Sally Wade noted that “NABE panelists have become more optimistic, on balance with nearly one-third revising their outlook higher based on recent news of effective vaccines.”

While the NABE survey estimated economic growth at an annualized rate of 4.1% in Q3 2020 with growth slowing to 2.9% in Q1 2021, 73% of respondents expect the American economy to bounce back to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2021.

Over half of the panelists agreed that the biggest threat to the recovery remains the ultimate unknown, the pandemic. For 27%, however, the biggest risk is insufficient financial aid from the government.