Through The Future Lens

The most prudent step in uncertain times is to stay close to emerging trends and embed a foresight culture in the organisation.

- Dr Aseem Chauhan, Suhayl Abidi, Dr Manoj Joshi, And Dr Ashok Kumar

From IBM CEO Thomas J Watson stating in 1943 that he thought “there is a world market for maybe five computers” to Bill Gates’ forecast that 640K of RAM ought to be enough for anybody, it is clear that the future is undeniably difficult to predict. How sure are you about yours or anyone’s prediction?

Rajkot, in Gujarat, is home to the largest organized lime paste (chuna in local language) company in India, whose product is a market leader and commands a premium due to its superior quality. However, the owner of this firm is a troubled man. He has observed that the younger generation is not attracted to tobacco and pan chewing and feels that this practice will slowly die out, perhaps in about 10 years. He has hired an R&D Manager to discover new uses for limestone in medicine or in other fields so that he can diversify. His managers have assured him that sales are strong and no decline is in sight, but he is adamant. What should he do, any insights?

Research also supports his assertion. According to the second Global Adult Tobacco Survey, tobacco use has gone down from 34.6 percent in 2009 to 28.6 percent in 2017. The National Health Policy, 2017, has set the target of “relative reduction in the prevalence of current tobacco use by 15 percent by 2020 and 30 percent by 2025”, as per The Economic Times.