EXPORT RECOVERY IN SIGHT

India’s impressive export growth is led by petroleum products, but remains broad-based, raising hopes of a sustained rally.

- JOE C. MATHEW

COMMERCE MINISTER Piyush Goyal was in a celebratory mood on January 3, the first working day of the year, after release of preliminary estimates of merchandise exports till December 2021.“We have $300 billion in first nine months, a historic record,” he said. He thanked Prime Minister Narendra Modi “for encouraging big thinking and providing vision and confidence to exporters, industry and missions all over the world,”adding that “he (Modi) brought stakeholders together with a common purpose, common goal. He personally interacted with exporters, missions across the world.”

Whatever be the inspiration behind the export surge, the fact remains that every month, from April to December 2021, saw India create fresh records in goods exports, which rose 49.66% to $301.38 billion during the period. In services, it earned $178 billion, and is expected to end FY2022 with $230 billion, a historic high, despite little contribution from Covid-19 hit travel and tourism segments.

Do these trends show resilience of Indian economy? Or are they a sign of global hunger for trade after several quarters of suppressed demand due to Covid-19?And more importantly, do they indicate that India is well on track to meet its $1.7 trillion export target by FY2028?

The answers are not as simple as headline numbers suggest.

$301billion GOODS EXPORTS IN APRIL-DEC 2021, 49.66% HIGHER THAN THE YEAR-AGO PERIOD.

Record Exports