18 12 For '18

Disruption, digital duo and data: the Ds transforming our industry

- Elie Khouri

So, did I catch you off-guard? Every year, I share my predictions with Campaign using the year as a marker for the number of upcoming themes. Given the period of unprecedented disturbance we’ve been facing, I thought it was time to revisit things. Looking back at last year’s list, there was one prediction I vastly underestimated and that was the severity of cuts in advertising investments in the region. I projected a 10 per cent drop in 2017, and it will end up closer to 20 per cent. So, this year, I’ll only make 12 predictions for two reasons; first, because that’s all we can afford, and second, you’ll have less content to contend with!

Joking aside, there is more to this than disruption or cyclical trends. It’s been a double-whammy of both at the same time. The first blow comes from the ongoing wars in the region, the low oil prices, new taxation and the reduction of subsidies across the GCC. There is also the impact of Saudisation, with the kingdom losing some 2 million people in the last two years, and the 50 per cent currency devaluation in Egypt. This led to either a stagnation or a drop in sales, and some clients overreacted with severe and, in some cases, unjustified budget cuts. Consequently, the MENA market has shed some 35 per cent of total media investments since 2015. We’ve gone from $5.5 billion to a projected $3.6 billion by the end of 2017.