Rock Bottom

Business sentiment hits a new low on rising concerns over economic slowdown and GST, finds the latest Business Today-C fore Business Confidence Survey.

- Manu Kaushik

The economy is in the doldrums. GDP growth fall to a three year low in the June quarter, record-low bank credit growth, weak private investment, underperforming exports, and impact of the goods and services tax, or GST, on the informal economy have jolted the confidence of business leaders.

The business sentiment hit a new low in the July-September quarter, breaching the previous low of 46.4 in the October-December 2016 quarter. The two major dips in business sentiment have been recorded in quarters of demonetisation and GST implementation, highlighting the nervousness of corporate leaders around these landmark changes.

The survey shows that, on a scale of 100, the confidence level went down to 45.1 in the second quarter of 2017/18 compared to 47.3 in the previous three months and 49.6 in the quarter prior to that. Market research agency C fore quizzed 500 CEOs and chief financial officers across 12 cities for the survey. This is the lowest level for the index in the last six quarters.

The historic low confidence level shows that the corporate sector is more worried than it has been in over six years since the survey started in January-March 2011. Nearly all parameters have registered a decline, including financial situation, profits, availability of finance, investment in business operations, hiring, cost of external finance, cost of raw material, and stock prices.

Take profits. Some 65 per cent respondents expect profit erosion in the October-December quarter. In the last survey, the corresponding figure was 42 per cent. Similarly, 44 per cent respondents expect financial situation to weaken in the current quarter as compared to 28 per cent in the previous survey.