Bumper Maize Harvest Set To Restore SA's Net Export Status

The record crop that the Crop Estimates Committee has forecast for local maize producers will place South Africa firmly back on the export map.

- Conce Moraba

In its third forecast for the 2017/2018 season, the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) has increased its forecast for South Africa’s total maize production to 14,5 million tons. This is 212 200t higher than the second forecast of 14,3 million tons, and will be the highest maize harvest in South Africa since the record 1980/1981 crop.

As a result, the export surplus will increase to 1,8 million tons, which will leave South Africa with about 2,3 months’ worth of available stock.

The expected increase in production, coupled with a stronger rand, has had a negative effect on the maize price. For the week ending 21 April, the white maize price declined 7,5% from R1 982/t to R1 833/t.

The expected large maize crop for the 2017/2018 marketing year (May/April), accompanied by the low domestic maize price, could result in a decline in the hectares planted to maize for this season (July/June).

In an attempt to increase income, farmers may decide to plant the additional available hectares to oilseeds, especially sunflower and soya beans.