The Business NG - November 21, 2025

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Editorial Focus: A Cautious Optimism for Nigeria’s Q3 Growth

As Nigeria awaits the Q3 2025 GDP report, the debate over the economy’s true strength has intensified. Some analysts project a cautious expansion between 3.6% and 3.9%, pointing to a strong base effect, stubborn inflation, and the persistent drag from the oil sector, which now contributes barely 4% to GDP. Yet, this outlook does not diminish the resilience of the non-oil economy, which continues to anchor national growth.

Trade, agriculture, telecoms, and financial services remain stable contributors, reinforcing prospects for continued expansion. More bullish analysts anticipate growth reaching 4.5%, citing renewed activity in manufacturing and services. The PMI reading of 52.8 underscores rising business confidence and broad-based economic expansion.

Others argue that gains in agriculture and industry will likely cushion weaker performances in finance and insurance. Regardless of where the final figure lands, one thing is clear: Nigeria’s growth story is shifting, driven less by oil and more by the sectors powering everyday economic activity.