CUAL-ITY CAN TELL

Paul Jacobs runs a shrewd eye over the month's big-race betting prospects

- Paul Jacob

For most pundits and punters alike October may be a make or break month for punting at the back end of the Flat season.

I have no doubt that many of you will be looking forward to the hurly burly of the National Hunt season with a fresh start to your punting campaign through to 2026. However, looking back at my profit and loss record for the past few years I have for some reason always attained a better profit ratio through September and into October.

An ante-post wager on the Arc de Triomphe has always been in my punting profile as long back as having a lumpy investment at 33/1 on Sakhee for the 2001 edition all the way through to the 12/1 I managed to thieve on the brilliant Ace Impact two years ago.

This years renewal on October 5 has looked as mirky as the River Seine for months with plans changing on an daily basis it seems and as per normal the market overreacting to them.

Runner-up 12 months ago to Bluestocking, both in the Vermeille and in the big race proper, on balance Aventure is probably the right favourite, but the 4/1 readily available is a pass for me and I will be desperately disappointed if I cannot find one to beat the daughter of Sea The Stars. I think that Cualificar won a below-par Prix Niel, but I actually think that there is a load more to come from the Andre Fabre trained colt as that was his first run over a mile and a half and he would have been unsuited by a muddling gallop. A well run race over this trip looks sure to bring out the best in him and I have already played him pre-Niel (no pun intended) at 33/1 for a handsome return, but in such an open year I also want a second string to my Paris bow.

A well-beaten fourth last year, Sosie hasn't really taken the steps forward I thought he might do this season, while plenty of the 3yo colts further down the market place look hugely unconvincing.