Ominous change

A clear change evident in western disturbances that bring the crucial winter rains to India

- MS JANGRA AND PRAKRITI

FOR AT least three years now, western disturbances have displayed unusual behaviour in India. The cyclonic storms, which originate in the Mediterranean region, travel more than 9,000 km to bring winter rains to northwest India. But since 2019, winter has been largely dry across the country. Western disturbances arrived late in 2023 and began to intensify around March. They reached a climax in May, which received 175 per cent more rainfall than normal and saw maximum and minimum temperature 10 per cent and 20 per cent below normal, respectively. The effect was largely limited to northern India. The change in weather has affected rabi crops, particularly the harvest and marketing of wheat grains, causing losses to farmers.

There is no doubt that the behaviour of western disturbance will change in a warming world. But how will it behave and how will it affect agriculture?