ROLE OF INDIAN NAVY IN A POTENTIAL INDO-PAK CONFLICT

VENUGOPAL MENON outlines India's challenges in the maritime domain and the role of the Indian Navy in a future conflict

- VENUGOPAL MENON

The recently concluded Operation Sindoor has been a watershed moment for the Indian military and statecraft. Major takeaways have been the significance of escalation management in modern warfare, the relevance of operational art and OODA loop (Observe, Orient, Decide and Act), multi-domain operations and conflict termination. A major paradigm shift in our approach has been to break the shackles of the policy of strategic restraint. Whereas the sea power was not actively involved in Operation Sindoor, the Navy must be prepared to step in future conflicts for the achievement of the political aim. It may also be noted that the conflict spilling into the maritime domain would signal a full-scale war, which would have a significant geopolitical dimension as well, affecting the energy security of countries in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), Southeast Asia and the Far East.

Assumptions

The maritime strategy of the Pakistan Navy is centred on sea denial. Hence, operations would be restricted to the western seaboard, and the conflict is likely to be of a short duration. Further, the limited endurance of conventional submarines of the Pakistan Navy precludes them from being deployed off our east coast. However, a possible Pak-Bangladesh strategic alliance in future cannot be ruled out. Even then, the positioning of assets by Pak to the east coast cannot go undetected by our surveillance. Reappreciation could be done on receipt of intelligence inputs on the presence of any Pak units on the east coast and forces redeployed.

The PLA Navy is unlikely to deploy its ships/submarines in the Indian Ocean in an offensive role in the event of a future India-Pak conflict. Any offensive intent of China in the Indian Ocean would be at the risk of a threat to their energy security, as their tankers need to transit the vast expanse of the Indian Ocean to reach Chinese ports.

The conflict would remain well under the nuclear threshold.