Arc of India-China relations from Galwan to Kailash

Whether it is through military support to Pak, infrastructure investments in Gilgit-Baltistan, or increasing influence in Bangladesh, China appears to be operationalizing a strategic 'triangularity', a calibrated attempt to box India within South Asia.

- B.R. DEEPAK

Rising India and China continue to share a complex relationship marked by competition, cooperation, and geopolitical contestation. As of mid-2025, the bilateral relationship remains cautious but not devoid of engagement, characterized by calibrated diplomacy, selective decoupling, and a keen awareness of each other's strategic calculus. Recent developments, such as India's participation in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the opening of the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra route, renewed economic outreach, and resumption of visas to Chinese nationals reveal a cautious reset in ties, one that is pragmatic rather than conciliatory.

At the outset, India's participation in the SCO, especially through high-level ministerial visits, paving the way for Prime Minister Modi's participation in the summit in August, reflects its commitment to multilateral diplomacy, even with difficult partners. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh's visit was emblematic of India's balancing act, engaging with China within multilateral frameworks while maintaining a firm stance on core interests. His decision to abstain from signing the final joint statement, reportedly due to differences over the references to Pahalgam terrorist attack, sends a clear signal: while India is willing to cooperate multilaterally, it will not hesitate to draw red lines when national interests are at stake. A month later in mid-July India's External Affairs Minister, S. Jaishankar reiterated India's position that the SCO should not compromise on terrorism. Surprisingly, what was earlier described as "Indian diplomacy's S. Jaishankar problem" brought "optimism for rebuilding mutual trust," according to the Global Times.