Why the US-China AI race won't be won any time soon

For all the hype, both superpowers remain trapped by choke points one in rare earths, the other in lithography - that won't budge for a while.

- Bhavan Jaipragas Deputy Opinion Editor

From the United States this year has come a blizzard of words and initiatives meant to signal that it is in full kitchen-sink mode on artificial intelligence (AI) - and on the battle for preeminence over China.

This has been even more pronounced since the shock of the AI "Sputnik moment", when the Chinese firm DeepSeek shot to fame, seemingly out of the blue, earlier this year, with models rivalling American ones.

The rolling out earlier in December of "Pax Silica", an initiative involving America-friendly countries including Singapore, Japan, Australia and South Korea to deepen cooperation on securing AI supply chains, should be read in this light.

Among other things, members are expected to coordinate on chip design and manufacturing, launch joint ventures, and align investments in AI development and the critical minerals that underpin it.

US Undersecretary of State for Economic Affairs Jacob Helberg has sought to underplay the China element of the initiative, saying in interviews that it is purely "America centric", but it is plain to see what this is really about.

Overarching the messaging, the initiatives, and the state-encouraged investment - set to reach some US$350 billion (S$450 billion) on AI infrastructure in 2025 and an estimated US$400 billion in 2026 - is a simple pitch: We are in it to win.

In the telling of American techno-optimists, the Western superpower is already well ahead in the AI race, and the world should get on board and use its "AI stack" rather than China's, which will, they claim, eventually lose out.