White-Knuckle Time for Asia as Trump Could Twist Either Way

He might strike a grand bargain with Beijing or confront it. Neither prospect is very good for Asian security arrangements.

- Warren Fernandez

A new world order is emerging, with geopolitical convulsions not seen in decades. But no one yet knows the shape it will take nor how it will unfold.

Multipolarity though seems to be the word tripping off the tongues of politicians and pundits everywhere, including US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. There has been ominous talk of the three great powers, the United States, Russia and China, carving up the planet into spheres of influence, much like the Oceania, Eurasia and Eastasia of George Orwell's chilling novel, 1984.

It is not clear if the beleaguered Mr Rubio speaks for his boss, or whether US President Donald Trump himself has any idea what his end game is or how to get there. While he admires the strongman leaders of Russia and China, they speak of nations in civilizational terms, and take the long view over decades and millennia. Mr Trump's focus is more on immediate trade benefits, news cycles and headlines, with his eye on next year's midterm elections.

Evidently, not everyone is on the same page when it comes to espousing multipolarity. As the Munich Security Report 2025 noted recently, "visions of multipolarity are also polarized. This makes it increasingly difficult to adapt the existing order peacefully, avoid new arms races, prevent violent conflicts within and among states, allow for more inclusive economic growth, and jointly address shared threats like climate change."

Indeed, a multipolar order raises many questions: how would this threesome of powers relate to one another? As equals? Would Russia and China agree to being subordinate to the US, or each other?