What's worrying about Prabowo's 'free and hyper-active' foray into S. China Sea claims

Jakarta foreign policy community fears new president has given too much away to China in a departure from longstanding policy.

- Ravi Velloor

It is not uncommon for new leaders, especially those who come through with strong mandates, to allow themselves to believe that their popularity with the home crowd can be ported across to the field of foreign relations in the quest to find solutions to thorny issues.

President Rodrigo Duterte did so in his attempt to reset the Philippines' relations with China; India's Narendra Modi tried the same with Pakistan. But before long, wisdom dawns as the airborne trajectories of such ambitions are brought down to earth by the weight of national interests, the cautionary warnings of bureaucrats and their institutional memory, and the hard realities of global politics. Balance is restored.

The latest in that line of Asian leaders who are learning on the job appears to be Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto.

For months before his October inauguration as president, there had been excitement and anticipation of an Indonesian leader playing off the front foot, unlike his predecessor, Mr Joko Widodo. In the early days of President Widodo, his officials had difficulty convincing him to even attend Asean summits, since he apparently thought they were a waste of his time. Though he later developed a mild taste for foreign policy, "Jokowi", as Indonesians know him, mostly stayed focused on domestic issues.

His successor seems to be a lot different. Shades of Zamrud Khatulistiwa (Equatorial Emerald) elan shone through at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore in mid-2023 when, as defence minister, Mr Prabowo sprang a four-point peace plan for Ukraine on his audience. The plan included the suggestion of holding a referendum in contested territories on the country they wished to join – Ukraine or Russia. The proposals sparked anger in Ukraine and ran counter to the UN position, to which Jakarta formally adhered to.