Trump Puts 'Madman Theory' to the Test

There is power in unpredictability in international relations, but there is also a catch.

- Jonathan Eyal

"No, I haven't changed. Maybe I've gotten worse, actually." That's what Mr Donald Trump said in his first public appearance after surviving an assassination attempt on the campaign trail in July 2024.

Most people who undergo a near-death experience tend to claim that their survival made them more optimistic about the future. But not "The Donald", who regards his life as an unstoppable fight against political demons.

The key question for governments worldwide is whether the Trump 2.0 presidency would follow a similar pattern by being even more confrontational than its first version. Nobody knows for the moment, including Mr Trump's closest advisers.

What we do know, however, is that the relative calm - even with the flurry of executive orders - of the first two weeks of Mr Trump's return to power is over. A trade war, fought with tariffs and threats of more, is now upon us.

We also know that the US President remains an ardent believer in the "Madman Theory" of international relations, the idea that he can extract maximum concessions only if he persuades the world that he is capable of doing anything, including seizing and annexing to the United States the territory of both allies and enemies.

The "madman" approach is a strategy that has been tried by other leaders and usually ends in failure. However, it is one that Mr Trump, who claimed in his inauguration speech that he was "saved by God to make America great again", remains determined to pursue. And he will have many opportunities to test it over the next four years. Fasten your seatbelts for the rollercoaster journey that awaits us.