Thai pro-democracy party may play kingmaker amid political turmoil

Party's rise to power had been thwarted by conservative establishment

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BANGKOK - A Thai pro-democracy party whose rise to power has been thwarted by the country's conservative establishment is suddenly in pole position to anoint its next prime minister.

After the Constitutional Court ousted Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra on Aug. 29 for an ethics violation, her unwieldy 10-party coalition split up. Now the People's Party, which has been in opposition since a 2023 election despite winning the most seats, is being courted by rival political groups seeking to form a government.

The two main possibilities to become prime minister are Mr. Anutin Charnvirakul, the conservative leader of Bhumjaithai who is widely considered the frontrunner, and Mr. Chaikasem Nitisiri, the only remaining candidate backed by the billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra, Ms. Paetongtarn's father, who had been the country's most popular politician over the past few decades.

The People's Party has set several conditions to secure its backing, including dissolving the Lower House within four months to call a snap election and holding a referendum on a new Constitution. Its leaders were to hold a meeting on Sept. 1 to formalize their strategy.

The emergence of the People's Party as kingmaker poses a fresh test for the country's royalist establishment. Even if any new government is effectively a caretaker administration, a strong showing for the pro-democracy party in the next election would again put it at risk of being disbanded for advocating measures that would curtail the monarchy's powers, similar to its two predecessors.