Putin's N. Korea defence deal shows desire for greater role in Asian affairs

Russia could offer a counterbalance to China’s influence in the region

- Jonathan Eyal

Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to North Korea and the signature pact promising "mutual help" in the event of "aggression" against either country underscore Russia's determination to play a far more prominent role in Asian affairs - one that could offer a counterbalance to China's regional influence.

Despite Russian claims of a "decades-long friendship" with North Korea, links between the two neighbours have in reality stagnated since the disintegration of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s.

President Putin had visited Pyongyang only once previously, in 2000, just as the Russian leader first came to power. Since then, Mr Putin has largely ignored the affairs of the Korean peninsula.

Matters changed in 2023, when Moscow turned to North Korea for urgently needed ammunition, with its troops bogged down in the fighting in Ukraine.

On this score, the North Koreans have three significant advantages.

All the weapon systems operated by the North Korean military are either of Soviet production or design, so their ammunition and spare parts are compatible with those used by the Russian military.

The North Koreans also hold vast quantities of such weapons.

The Kim family's three generations of rulers have hoarded military arsenals well beyond what any nation would consider sound or economically viable.

Finally, with China under sustained US pressure not to transfer weapons to Russia, Moscow's decision to source ammunition from North Korea has spared the Chinese from having to confront America's wrath.

The Russian military's greatest need was for artillery ammunition, and according to February 2024 estimates by the US Defence Intelligence Agency, Pyongyang may have delivered around three million artillery shells in the past year.