'Pitiful' Sanae Takaichi on course to become Japan PM

Right-leaning party JIP a kingmaker as she tries to woo new coalition partner

- Walter Sim

Days after the jubilant highs of becoming the Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) first woman leader, Ms Sanae Takaichi was self-deprecating.

The 64-year-old was poised for her coronation as prime minister on Oct 15. Yet, at a business event on Oct 14, she introduced herself with a touch of irony: "I am the pitiful Sanae Takaichi, of whom it is widely said: 'She's become the LDP president, but she may not become prime minister'"

The Diet, as Japan's Parliament is known, is now scheduled to convene on Oct 21. But, as a web of intense negotiations continues, the date for the prime minister vote remains undecided.

The customary open-and-shut vote has been complicated by the ruling LDP's diminished position in both the Lower and Upper Houses of the Diet. While still the largest presence in both chambers, it lacks a majority and could be usurped in what is ultimately a numbers game.

Despite these challenges, analysts say Ms Takaichi remains on course to take power.

A blemish to Ms Takaichi's reign came on Oct 10 when the dovish Komeito abruptly quit its 26-year coalition with the LDP, a relationship once described as "unshakeable". She has since extended the coalition offer to the Japan Innovation Party (JIP), also commonly known as Nippon Ishin no Kai.

The two parties are entering a third straight day of talks on Oct 17. The JIP, recognising a golden opportunity for political leverage, has presented the LDP with a list of 12 demands.

Among other things, it wants a two-year abolition of consumption tax on food, and the designation of Osaka as a "sub-capital" to ensure government functions are not disrupted if a major earthquake strikes Tokyo.

The conservative JIP was founded in 2015 in Osaka, where it is so dominant that it swept all 19 single-seat constituencies in the 2024 Lower House election.