Panama exits China's BRI – which Latin American country is next?

While more will come under US pressure, Beijing will be hard to dislodge: Analysts

- Lim Min Zhang

A great power rivalry between the US and China over Latin America – a region often described as the US' backyard – appears to be heating up.

Panama became the second country to leave China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) – after Italy in December 2023 – soon after new US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's visit to Latin America in early February.

Panama had faced threats from US President Donald Trump, who claimed that the US would "take back" the eponymous canal from Chinese control. But Panamanian President Jose Raul Mulino has maintained that Washington did not convince his country to quit the BRI.

In Latin America, China's BRI to build infrastructure largely in developing countries that facilitate trade between China and the world – has resulted in investments not just in canals, railways and mines, but also increasingly in telecommunications networks, data centres and electric vehicles. These growing partnerships have worried the US.

Mr Rubio's trip to Panama, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Guatemala and the Dominican Republic was the first time in more than 100 years that a US secretary of state's first official visit abroad was to Latin America.

This was seen to signal that the region is a foreign policy priority under Mr Trump.

Mr Rubio has been strongly critical of governments in Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela – all of which share close ties with Beijing.

Under Mr Trump, will more Latin American countries be forced to re-evaluate ongoing cooperation with Beijing?

While analysts expect more Latin American countries to come under US pressure over their economic ties to China, they also think that Beijing's entrenched position through years of cultivating the region's leaders will be hard to dislodge.