News analysis: No end to Israel's Gaza war without US and domestic pressure on Netanyahu

It is now 600 days since the start of the Gaza war, and the Israeli government still portrays itself as the conflict's chief victim.

- Jonathan Eyal

LONDON -

The war broke out after an Oct 7, 2023, massacre perpetrated by the Hamas militant organization, in which approximately 1,200 mostly Israeli civilians perished.

This was the single most significant blow the Jewish state had been dealt since its creation in 1948.

But Israel's response to the massacre also risks self-inflicting its biggest diplomatic setback since its creation.

The country faces international isolation, and much of the damage to its global standing already seems irreversible.

And just as significantly, the Gaza war continues not so much because Israel pursues any meaningful military objective, but more because it is the only way Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu can cling to power.

Since the state's creation, Israel's military and security establishments have always planned for short wars.

The country is far too small, vulnerable and interconnected to global supply chains to sustain long military campaigns.

It also has no prospect of permanently defeating its enemies. All it can do is administer swift blows to its opponents. That was the logic of the country's founders, and it worked as intended.

The 1956 war against Egypt lasted 10 days. The 1967 war against most of the country's neighbours was waged over six days. And the 1973 war, which took Israel by surprise and, for a while, looked like it would end in defeat for the Jewish state, lasted a mere 19 days.

But Mr Netanyahu has turned this strategic logic on its head. He has presided over Israel's longest war, with no end in sight. And he continues to claim that he can "eliminate" Israel's immediate foe, Hamas, despite all the evidence to the contrary.

According to the latest estimates from the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF), Hamas' military wing remains operational with an estimated 40,000 fighters, roughly the same number it had before Oct 7, 2023.