India and Pakistan's Drone Battles Mark New Arms Race in Asia

Both sides doubling down on production and use of unmanned aerial vehicles

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NEW DELHI - On the evening of May 8, red flares streaked through the night sky over the northern Indian city of Jammu as its air defence systems opened fire on drones from neighbouring Pakistan.

The Indian and Pakistani militaries have deployed high-end fighter jets, conventional missiles and artillery during decades of clashes, but the four days of fighting in May marked the first time that New Delhi and Islamabad utilised unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) at scale against each other.

The fighting halted after the US announced it brokered a ceasefire, but the South Asian powers, which spent more than US$96 billion (S$123.6 billion) on defence in 2024, are now locked in a drone arms race, according to Reuters' interviews with 15 people, including security officials, industry executives and analysts in the two countries.

Two of them said they expect increased use of UAVs by the nuclear-armed neighbours because small-scale drone attacks can strike targets without risking personnel or provoking uncontrollable escalation.

India plans to invest heavily in local industry and could spend as much as US$470 million on UAVs over the next 12 to 24 months, roughly three times pre-conflict levels, said Mr Smit Shah of Drone Federation India, which represents more than 550 companies and regularly interacts with the government.

The previously unreported forecast, which came as India approved roughly US$4.6 billion in emergency military procurement funds in May, was corroborated by two other industry executives. The Indian military plans to use some of that additional funding on combat and surveillance drones, according to two Indian officials familiar with the matter.

Defence procurement in India tends to involve years of bureaucratic processes, but officials are now calling drone makers in for trials and demonstrations at an unprecedented pace, said Mr Vishal Saxena, a vice-president at Indian UAV firm IdeaForge Technology.