In highly politicised America, pressure to pick a side in US-China conflict will grow

Singapore's incoming prime minister Lawrence Wong will need to walk a tightrope through the buffeting winds of great power strategic rivalry at precisely the moment that a particularly contentious election campaign in the United States moves into high gear.

- Bhagyashree Garekar

Mr Wong will have to contend with a more challenging world, said nearly all diplomats and experts The Straits Times spoke to.

"I think Lawrence Wong will face a difficult world, squared, from day one," said Ambassador-at-Large Chan Heng Chee, who was Singapore's longest-serving diplomat in Washington from 1996 to 2012.

Competition between the US and China will not subside, Professor Chan said, although the two sides are trying to find a new equilibrium after the first in-person meeting between President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping at the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in November 2023.

"There's a slight stabilisation because it suits both sides to make sure that the relationship doesn't go over the cliff," she said.

But there are complications. One set arises from the US presidential election on Nov 5. With Mr Biden's and his Republican rival Donald Trump's campaigns gaining steam, China could become the target of hostile rhetoric from both sides, one trying to outdo the other.

On the US election outcome, Prof Chan said: "If it is President Trump, we do not know what his policies will be." This translates into a more difficult world for Mr Wong and greater pressure on Singapore. "While we say we do not want to choose sides, the pressures will increase," she said.

Mr Daniel Russel, vice-president for international security and diplomacy at the Asia Society Policy Institute in New York, agreed.

"Quite apart from the uncertainty over the election outcome, Wong takes the reins at a time when issues ranging from trade to defence are highly politicised in Washington," said Mr Russel, who served as assistant secretary of state for East Asia and Pacific affairs in the Obama administration.