Economists Keep S'pore Growth Forecast for 2025 at 2.6%

Geopolitical tensions cited as top downside risk amid expanding Trump tariff threats

- Ovais Subhani

Private sector economists kept unchanged their forecast for economic growth in Singapore at 2.6 per cent in 2025, while citing geopolitical tensions, including from higher tariffs, as the foremost downside risk to the outlook.

That pace of growth will be slower than the 4.4 per cent Singapore clocked in 2024 and is closer to the higher end of the 1 per cent to 3 per cent range projected by the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI).

The economists also flagged weaker growth in China and a resurgence in inflation as potential risks, according to the latest quarterly survey of professional forecasters by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) released on March 19.

Survey respondents also projected economic growth to slow to 2.3 per cent in 2026.

MTI in February had also flagged the risk of higher uncertainty over US economic policies amid escalating trade tensions.

US President Donald Trump has so far imposed a 20 per cent tariff rate on China, as well as a 25 per cent levy on steel and aluminum.

Mr Trump has also threatened 25 per cent tariffs on Canada and Mexico and plans to announce broad reciprocal tariffs to match the rates that US exporters face in any country on April 2.