A Trump loss could stabilise US politics for a generation

The lesson of 2024 so far is that American populists have no replacement for the former president's star power.

- Janan Ganesh

There is such a thing as an unimportant US presidential election. Had Mr Bill Clinton lost to Mr Bob Dole in 1996, or Mr George W. Bush to Mr John Kerry the other side of the millennium, there is no reason to believe we would now inhabit a greatly different world.

So when I suggest that Nov 5, 2024, is a hinge moment in history, don't murmur: "Journalists say this every damn time." What is the case for this election's singular importance? If Donald Trump loses, there is an underrated chance that America and its politics will stabilise for a generation.

"Stabilise" doesn't mean "become Luxembourg". Polarisation will endure.

But the received wisdom that Trumpism will outlast Trump that he is just the face and voice of deeper societal forces, liable to rock the republic for decades - is shakier than it was four years ago.

The lesson of 2024 so far is that American populism will find Trump hideously difficult to replace. In January, Mr Ron DeSantis, who combined the gist of the Trump platform with executive competence, dropped out of the Republican primaries, having not done well enough to even state his case for 2028.

In July, Mr J.D. Vance clinched the title not just of running mate but of heir to the Maga (Make America Great Again) movement. Nothing since then has suggested that he is up to it.