3 years on, Ukraine faces a peace deal that may be riskier than war

Ukraine marked the third anniversary of the Russian invasion on Feb 24 with a solemn ceremony in Kyiv, the capital, attended by 12 European heads of state and government, with many more joining by video link.

- Jonathan Eval

"Three years of resistance.

Three years of gratitude. Three years of absolute heroism of Ukrainians," President Volodymyr Zelensky told his guests before thanking "all those who defend and support" Ukraine.

But as the attendees at commemorations in Kyiv knew only too well, Ukraine's fate is currently being decided in negotiations between Russia and the US, in which Mr Zelensky is not consulted, let alone invited to take part.

Ukraine has confronted many dangers in its recent history.

However, the challenge it faces now is among the most serious since it may still result in Ukraine returning to a Russian sphere of influence.

When Russia sent its tanks across the border into Ukraine on Feb 24, 2022, Moscow's military commanders predicted victory within three days.

Three years later, the fighting continues unabated, and what initially seemed like a war of high speed and surprise has turned into attrition warfare, as each side seeks to wear down its enemy.

The war also proved to be a big surprise for Western governments.

The US intelligence community was excellent at picking up Russia's preparations for the invasion and predicted with great accuracy even the day of the invasion.

But Western analysts got wrong almost everything that followed. They assumed, like their Russian counterparts, that Ukraine would be swiftly conquered, and therefore planned to support a long period of relatively low-key Ukrainian guerilla warfare against the Russian occupiers.

Instead, what Europe is experiencing is an old-fashioned major war and a 21st-century military confrontation, all rolled into one.

On the one hand, there are the trenches, the heavy artillery consuming millions of shells a month, plus the grisly so-called "meat grinder" offensives in which thousands of soldiers perish in efforts to capture a few square metres of enemy territory.