Myanmar peace unlikely without fair election

In a surprise move, on August 18, the Myanmar military junta, known as Tatmadaw, announced that it will hold the first phase of elections in December this year while lifting the state of emergency imposed since it took power.

- SMRUTI S PATTANAIK

Since last year, the Tatmadaw has been asking the armed group to abandon their resistance to participate in the election, which has been rejected by the Ethnic Armed Organisation (EAO).

The junta, which assumed power in 2021 after the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), a party it supported, lost the election, has been facing a military debacle posed by the Armed Ethnic group of Three Brotherhood Alliance (TBA).

Though the junta held ground in Rakhine state, it ceded territory to the Arakan Army.

In Kachin and Karen states, China brokered peace between the Chinese-speaking Kokang ethnic minority army, which is also known as the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), in January this year.

It negotiated a ceasefire in northern Shan state with the Ta'ang National Liberation Army.

It forced the United Wa State Army (UWSA), another powerful rebel group in eastern Shan state, to negotiate with the Myanmar Army.

As a result, the UWSA withdrew from Lashio, the most important town that would have threatened the junta's control of Mandalay.

It already experienced a setback in Myawaddy, in Karen state near the Thailand border, where hundreds of soldiers surrendered.

China opened the border after the truce was signed, as the border remains a lifeline for the Shan state.

China applied pressure on the Kachin National Army, Ta'ang National Army and the Arakan Army, which now controls 14 of 17 townships in Rakhine and defines its offensive as a "war of national liberation."

Sometimes, a ceasefire is not effective as these armed groups have their own interests.

Yet China managed to force the TBA to cease hostilities.

China has now forced UWSA to cease all forms of support to allied groups for violating 'China's policy of "no war and no unrest" in northern Myanmar' through its Operation 1027.