BSP posts most accurate inflation projections in over a decade

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) delivered its most accurate inflation forecasts in over a decade in 2024, with its month-ahead projections outperforming private sector estimates and posting the lowest forecast error since 2010.

- By KEISHA TA-ASAN

In its latest monetary policy report, the BSP said its month-ahead inflation forecasts “consistently outperformed private sector consensus estimates,” with forecast errors in 2024 “slightly lower than in 2023 and below the historical average since 2010.”

The mean absolute error of month-ahead forecasts dropped to 0.18 percentage points last year from 0.28 in 2023 and below the 0.21 historical average over the 2010-2024 period.

“Compared to 2023, forecast errors in 2024 were lower for both monthand year-ahead forecasts, reflecting a more accurate assessment of evolving price conditions amid easing supply pressures and reduced volatility,” the BSP said.