THE CURIOUS CASE OF FEWER VOTERS IN A QUARTER OF SEATS

IN just over a quarter of all the constituencies covered till Phase 6 of the ongoing Lok Sabha elections, fewer people came out to vote compared to the 2019 election.

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This has never happened before in India's electoral history, since in a young and growing country the total population and the number of 18-year-olds who are eligible to vote only increase every year.

So it is very rare to find a decline in the absolute number of voters between two five-year election cycles.

In Phase 6, where 58 constituencies finished polling, 17 of them, or 29 percent, saw a decline in voters vis-a-vis 2019, further confirming a trend spotted earlier.

Polling has now been completed in 485 constituencies across six phases.

Some 575 million Indians have cast their votes in these constituencies, compared to 551 million in 2019, 495 million in 2014 and 371 million in 2009. Clearly, there has been an increase in the total number of people who came out to vote in these constituencies. This is what is expected in a growing country like India.

But these aggregates hide a surprising trend in 2024-124 of these 485 constituencies experienced a decline in the total number of voters from 2019. To put this in context, none of these constituencies saw a decline in voters in 2014 from 2009, and only 24 did in 2019 from 2014.

Most of these 124 constituencies that saw a decline are in eight states― Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, Kerala, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Haryana.