A WAR TURNED INTO A COSTLY TEST OF STAMINA

The Ukraine-Russia war faces a brutal military and diplomatic deadlock where neither side can define victory. Trump's decision to resume military supplies to Ukraine will prolong the stalemate

- LT GEN SYED ATA HASNAIN (RETD)

Operation Sindoor and the Iran-Israel-US standoff took the world's eyes off the scanner on Eastern Europe. The focus has now returned to Ukraine, especially with the spate of Russian drone and missile attacks and the US decision to resume supply of military hardware to Ukraine.

Three years since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, the battlefield remains frozen in more ways than one. Despite billions of dollars in Western aid, thousands of lives lost, and relentless offensives, the war shows few signs of a decisive conclusion. Instead, it has evolved into a grinding war of attrition—with military breakthroughs elusive and the political will for total victory giving way to discussions on containment, ceasefire and face-saving 'off ramps'—in effect, the Americanisation of the war.

Ukraine failed to make major territorial gains through its much-anticipated counteroffensive in 2023, highlighting not just how well-entrenched the Russian forces are, but also the limits of modern Western weaponry. For Russia, despite its superior numbers and recent gains in places like Avdiivka, the advance has been incremental and costly.

Neither side currently possesses the capability to inflict a decisive blow. Ukraine lacks the strategic depth and offensive firepower to roll back Russian positions across the entire front. Meanwhile, Russia has neither the political cover nor the operational capacity to overwhelm Ukraine without incurring massive costs—both militarily and diplomatically. In short, even if militarily possible, Russia cannot justify a total war or occupation of Ukraine in a politically sustainable way.