Why Africa's $12.7 Billion Annual Losses Matter for Asia

Fragile Infrastructure, Rising Risks

- SV KRISHNA CHAITANYA @Chennai

Africa is losing an estimated $12.7 billion every year to floods, earthquakes, and other natural disasters, with climate change expected to intensify these losses in the years ahead, according to a new report by the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI), which warns that the continent's already fragile infrastructure is at a tipping point.

The study, the first of its kind for Africa, also carries urgent lessons for Asia, where booming infrastructure investments face similar vulnerabilities. The report, part of the Global Infrastructure Resilience (GIR) series, is based on the Global Infrastructure Risk Model and Resilience Index (GIRI). This probabilistic model calculates the financial risks from multiple hazards across nine infrastructure sectors and residential and commercial buildings.

Its findings show that out of the $12.7 billion in average annual losses, $1.8 billion comes from infrastructure assets alone, excluding private dwellings and businesses. The rest reflects the damage to buildings that millions rely on for shelter and economic activity.

Floods are the dominant hazard, accounting for nearly 70 percent of losses, followed by earthquakes at 28 percent. While quakes are less frequent, they tend to be catastrophic when they strike, as the 2023 Morocco earthquake demonstrated, wiping out billions of dollars in assets and lives in a matter of hours.

The burden is not evenly shared. Eastern Africa records the highest annual losses at $5.1 billion, or 43 percent of the total, followed by Northern and Southern Africa at $2.3 billion each. At a national level, South Africa ($1.7 billion), Nigeria ($1.1 billion), and Algeria ($1 billion) top the table. But the story is far more severe for smaller economies. Lesotho loses the equivalent of 1.5 percent of GDP every year to disasters, Mauritius 1.25 percent, and Comoros 1 percent.