WHY INDIA MUST HEED GULF NATIONS' PLANS FOR POST-WAR FUTURE

Whatever shape the West Asia ceasefire takes, Gulf countries are planning to tighten belt to spend on reconstruction, reduce foreign workers and seek new military assurances. Much of it will affect India

- KP NAYAR Strategic analyst

WITH uncertainty looming over the course of the war against Iran—the ceasefire notwithstanding—countries on the Arab side of the Persian Gulf are preparing for postwar times. India must sit up and pay attention to these preparations, which may be lost in the region’s habit of speaking with a forked tongue.

The United Arab Emirates, which was ahead of the rest of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) crowd in preparing for a future away from oil at least two decades ago, is in the lead once again in mapping plans for a postIran-war era. Take, for instance, the new law promulgated in Dubai precisely a fortnight after Israel and the US began bombardment of Iran. Under this law, signed by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum in his capacity as Dubai’s ruler, private companies are required to employ one UAE citizen for every foreigner in order to do any work for the government, or to validate any contract with the public sector. Hitherto, only 10 percent of a company’s workforce was required to be made up of Emiratis.

Typical of UAE government decisions, the new law will not be enforced in a disruptive manner. Emiratisation is to be achieved in a phased manner: private companies must increase the number of UAE citizens in their workforce by 1 percent every six months. So Indians, who make up the largest section of the UAE workforce, need not panic as the change will be gradual. But they must come to terms that Dubai, which provides the most employment opportunities to foreigners within the UAE, can no longer be their home forever. They must gradually plan to return home or relocate elsewhere.