BLOOD FLOWS AS FRAGILE PAUSE DOES NOTHING TO CAP COST

Our stakes in the Gulf war rose sharply when the US targeted ships carrying Indian crews. We must ring-fence interests and press for peace at the upcoming G7 meet

- AUSAF SAYEED

In a single Thursday, the war over Iran shifted from the brink of a catastrophe to the cusp of a deal.

In a single Thursday, the war over Iran shifted from the brink of a catastrophe to the cusp of a deal. On June 11, President Donald Trump threatened to strike Iran ‘‘very hard’’ and seize Kharg island, through which nine-tenths of Iranian oil flows; by nightfall, he had called off the strikes, announced an agreement ‘‘approved’’ by all parties—Iran among them—and predicted a signing in Europe within days. It was at least the eighth time since February that he cancelled strikes at the last moment—a rhythm of ultimatum and reprieve that should temper any euphoria.

Yet the breakthrough is more of a declaration than a fact. Tehran offered no confirmation; its semi-official Fars news agency said Iran had agreed to no memorandum of understanding, though it judged an eventual approval likely. Israel went further, refusing to recognise any agreement, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly blindsided by the announcement. The framework, brokered in late-night exchanges between Qatari and Iranian negotiators, focuses narrowly on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the US naval blockade, while deferring decisions on Iran’s nuclear programme and over $16 billion in frozen Iranian funds. Trump stressed that the blockade remains in effect until the ink is dry.